Causalidad de Granger entre composición de las exportaciones, crecimiento económico y producción de energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Latinoamérica

Javier Alejandro Vera Vargas, Werner Kristjanpoller Rodríguez

Resumen


El presente trabajo examina la relación causal de corto y largo plazo entre el crecimiento económico, la composición de las exportaciones y la producción de energía eléctrica, utilizando el enfoque de cointegración de datos de panel para 14 países latinoamericanos entre los años 1971 y 2010. El análisis considera en primera instancia las exportaciones de forma agregada para luego desagregar en 12 sectores industriales y, finalmente, según el uso intensivo de tecnología. Los resultados indican que el crecimiento económico de largo plazo de la región depende de las exportaciones no tecnológicas; asimismo, las políticas que afectan negativamente la producción de energía eléctrica no impactan el PIB en el corto plazo, pero sí en el largo plazo.


Palabras clave


crecimiento económico; composición de las exportaciones; producción de energía eléctrica; cointegración de datos de panel; Latinoamérica.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n86a02 Resumen : 1749 PDF : 871 XML : 14

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